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What is the impact on export trade as the RMB exchange rate falls?

What is the impact on export trade as the RMB exchange rate falls?

11 Oct, 2024

On 25 September, the offshore yuan against the U.S. dollar exchange rate once recovered the 7.0 mark, the highest rose to 6.99515,

Which is since May last year, the yuan against the U.S. dollar exchange rate recovered the 7.0 mark.

As of press time at 16:00, the offshore yuan against the dollar exchange rate at 7.0175, down 0.09 per cent; onshore yuan against the dollar exchange rate at 7.0196, up 0.17 per cent.

Industry insiders said that the strong trend of the offshore yuan usually reflects the market's enduring confidence in the yuan, market participants tend to Be sensitive to the reaction of key technical levels,

The yuan exchange rate broke 7.0 is not only an important milestone in the exchange rate changes, but also may herald a broader market reversal signals.

Stimulated by the central bank's cut in interest rates and other favourable policies, the RMB-dollar exchange rate surged on 24 September.

The onshore RMBUSD exchange rate rose 202 basis points to close at 7.0318; the offshore RMBUSD exchange rate rose nearly 500 points to close at 7.01, the highest since May 2023.

 

The industry believes that China's economic recovery is one of the important factors driving the appreciation of the yuan;

After the dollar entered the interest rate reduction cycle, the possibility of appreciation of the yuan against the dollar increased greatly.

Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at Everbright Bank's Financial Markets Department, believes that

After the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, the yuan Rose steadily against the dollar, and the offshore yuan rose above the 7.0 mark.

From the domestic environment, the macro policy dividends continue to release, the foundation of economic recovery continues to consolidate,

The balance of payments is expected to maintain a basic balance, providing strong support for the stability of the RMB exchange rate; peripheral aspects,

The Federal Reserve gradually to the transition to the interest rate reduction cycle during the year, will limit the dollar upward space.

 

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